Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3615 LANDED 12:15 AM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3615 · ORD → BGR

took off 9:01 PM CT · landed 12:15 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BGR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3615 · ORD → BGR

Odds over time