Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3642 LANDED 11:37 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3642 · BNA → TPA

took off 9:13 AM CT · landed 11:37 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↑ BNA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3642 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time