Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3816 LANDED 4:50 PM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3816 · HRL → DFW

took off 3:37 PM CT · landed 4:50 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ HRL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HRL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3816 · HRL → DFW

Odds over time