Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3933 LANDED 8:45 AM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 3933 · XNA → ORD

took off 7:19 AM CT · landed 8:45 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3933 · XNA → ORD

Odds over time