Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4001 LANDED 7:43 PM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4001 · GJT → DFW

took off 4:57 PM MT · landed 7:43 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GJT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4001 · GJT → DFW

Odds over time