Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4016 LANDED 5:55 PM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

MQ 4016 · ILM → DFW

took off 4:28 PM ET · landed 5:55 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1.75 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4016 · ILM → DFW

Odds over time