Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4018 LANDED 12:07 PM CT, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4018 · MKE → ORD

took off 11:43 AM CT · landed 12:07 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4018 · MKE → ORD

Odds over time