Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4072 LANDED 4:43 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

MQ 4072 · DFW → SRQ

took off 1:19 PM CT · landed 4:43 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4072 · DFW → SRQ

Odds over time