Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4078
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
MQ 4078 · ELP → DFW
departs 4:19 PM MT · arrives 7:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
ELP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.62 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.