Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
MQ 4091 · FAT → PHX
departs 4:37 PM PT · arrives 6:24 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 18%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.