Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4104 LANDED 10:36 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4104 · ORD → ROC

took off 8:17 AM CT · landed 10:36 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ROC that day

↓ Arrivals into ROC at that hour are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4104 · ORD → ROC

Odds over time