Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4104 LANDED 11:50 AM CT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4104 · ROC → ORD

took off 11:32 AM ET · landed 11:50 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4104 · ROC → ORD

Odds over time