Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 4154 · PHX → CLD
departs 9:15 PM MT · arrives 10:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLD more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CLD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CLD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLD
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
CLD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.