Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4204 LANDED 6:04 PM MT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4204 · CRQ → PHX

took off 9:11 PM -03 · landed 6:04 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 9pm departures from CRQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

CRQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4204 · CRQ → PHX

Odds over time