Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4240 LANDED 5:52 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4240 · ORD → ALB

took off 3:08 PM CT · landed 5:52 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ALB that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ALB usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ALB (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4240 · ORD → ALB

Odds over time