Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4318 LANDED 5:12 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 4318 · DFW → CID

took off 3:41 PM CT · landed 5:12 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CID (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4318 · DFW → CID

Odds over time