Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9881 LANDED 4:46 PM ET, ~225 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

MQ 9881 · MAO → FLL

took off · landed 4:46 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MAO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

FLL (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 9881 · MAO → FLL

Odds over time