Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3216 LANDED 3:00 PM PT, ~15 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OO 3216 · SFO → SNA

took off 1:54 PM PT · landed 3:00 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3216 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time