Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
OO 3231 · STS → SNA
departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 6:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.