OO 3741 · LAS → SAN

departs 12:57 PM PT · arrives 2:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

SAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3741 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?