OO 3856 · DTW → BUF

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3856 · DTW → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?