OO 3906 · TUS → LAX

departs 4:42 PM MT · arrives 6:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.47 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3906 · TUS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?