Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4153 LANDED 4:55 PM PT, ~20 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

OO 4153 · SEA → SMF

took off 3:31 PM PT · landed 4:55 PM PT (scheduled 2:40 PM PT → 4:39 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4153 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?