Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 471 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:38 PM MT, ETA 5:21 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

OO 471 · DEN → MSN

took off 2:38 PM MT · expected to land 5:21 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 471 · DEN → MSN

Odds over time