OO 4931 · FLG → PHX

departs 5:26 PM MT · arrives 6:30 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±1 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLG that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ FLG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FLG (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.17 in

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4931 · FLG → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?