OO 4992 · ORD → FSD

departs 4:14 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at FSD that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4992 · ORD → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?