OO 5289 · SFO → ABQ

took off 6:49 PM PT · landed 9:55 PM MT (scheduled 6:44 PM PT → 10:28 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ABQ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ABQ that day

↑ Arrivals into ABQ at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ABQ (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5289 · SFO → ABQ

Odds over time

How late did it get to ABQ?