Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5433 LANDED 12:17 PM MT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OO 5433 · SFO → TUS

took off 10:22 AM PT · landed 12:17 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5433 · SFO → TUS

Odds over time