OO 5643 · DEN → SAF

departs 3:50 PM MT · arrives 5:12 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at SAF that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAF (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5643 · DEN → SAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAF?