Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
OO 5858 · LAX → SMF
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 6:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 10%
Thu 10/8 11%
Fri 10/9 14%
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.