QX 2116 · SNA → PAE

took off 7:05 PM PT · landed 9:32 PM PT (scheduled 6:46 PM PT → 9:50 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PAE?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ 6pm departures from SNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2116 · SNA → PAE

Odds over time

How late did it get to PAE?