Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2139 LANDED 10:14 AM PT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

QX 2139 · PAE → SFO

took off 8:27 AM PT · landed 10:14 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ 8am departures from PAE are usually not late

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2139 · PAE → SFO

Odds over time