Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2189 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

QX 2189 · SAN → PAE

departs 8:33 PM PT · arrives 11:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PAE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2189 · SAN → PAE

Odds over time