Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2222 LANDED 5:17 PM MT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

QX 2222 · SEA → HLN

took off 3:16 PM PT · landed 5:17 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HLN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ HLN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HLN

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

HLN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2222 · SEA → HLN

Odds over time