Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2278 LANDED 1:35 PM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

QX 2278 · PAE → LAX

took off 11:25 AM PT · landed 1:35 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ Other factors

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2278 · PAE → LAX

Odds over time