Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2418 LANDED 10:26 AM PT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

QX 2418 · SFO → PAE

took off 8:39 AM PT · landed 10:26 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ PAE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2418 · SFO → PAE

Odds over time