Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2437 LANDED 11:30 AM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

QX 2437 · PAE → SAN

took off 9:15 AM PT · landed 11:30 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ 9am departures from PAE are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2437 · PAE → SAN

Odds over time