Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1104 · LAX → LIH

departs 5:15 PM PT · arrives 8:14 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ 5pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1104 · LAX → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?