Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1239 LANDED 6:27 PM ET, ~108 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1239 · ORD → ROC

took off 4:15 PM CT · landed 6:27 PM ET (scheduled 1:55 PM CT → 4:45 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1239 · ORD → ROC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROC?