Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1463 LANDED 12:02 AM CT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1463 · IAD → IAH

took off 10:37 PM ET · landed 12:02 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1463 · IAD → IAH

Odds over time