UA 1470 · SBP → DEN

took off 1:18 PM PT · landed 4:31 PM MT (scheduled 12:51 PM PT → 4:15 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SBP are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1470 · SBP → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?