Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1478 LANDED 12:57 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1478 · YEG → IAH

took off 8:21 AM MDT · landed 12:57 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YEG

↑ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YEG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1478 · YEG → IAH

Odds over time