UA 1523 · SEA → IAD

took off 8:34 AM PT · landed 3:48 PM ET (scheduled 8:30 AM PT → 4:38 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1523 · SEA → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?