UA 1534 · RNO → DEN

took off 1:09 PM PT · expected to land 3:56 PM MT (scheduled 1:41 PM PT → 4:55 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1534 · RNO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?