Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 153 LANDED 11:59 AM PT, ~47 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 153 · HKG → LAX

took off · landed 11:59 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HKG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 153 · HKG → LAX

Odds over time