UA 1543 · EWR → SJU

took off 8:23 PM ET · landed 11:44 PM AT (scheduled 7:45 PM ET → 11:50 PM AT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,840 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1543 · EWR → SJU

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJU?