Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1615 LANDED 2:17 PM MT, ~124 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1615 · PHX → DEN

took off 12:03 PM MT · landed 2:17 PM MT (scheduled 1:31 PM MT → 4:27 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1615 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?