Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1764 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1764 · BDL → IAD

departs 3:02 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1764 · BDL → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?