UA 1864 · LAS → IAH

departs 4:48 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1864 · LAS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?