UA 1938 · IAD → PHX

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:46 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1938 · IAD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?